Putting the whole “once every 823 years” myth to bed

Now you may have noticed going round Facebook that July 2011 has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays and that this happens once every 823 years apparently.

True – July 2011 has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays.
False – this happens once every 823 years. In fact it happens 4 times every 28 years, as I will prove now.

To determine that a 31-day month (July in this case) has 5 Fridays, 5 Saturdays and 5 Sundays, we simply need to determine that it starts on a Friday as this will be the 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd and 29th, which it does.

Now consider the fact that if you want to add a year onto a weekday, we simply add a weekday, for example, if January 1st of one year is a Monday, January first of the next year will be a Tuesday. The exception to this is if there is a February 29th between the two dates, in which case we add on two weekdays, so Monday becomes Wednesday.

The leap years add an extra complication in that weekdays of a specific date don’t follow a simple 7-year cycle, they instead follow a 28-year one with different sized jumps (July will start on a Friday in 2011, 2016, 2022, and then 11 years later in 2033.)

I have done a spreadsheet to show the next two instances of this cycle which prove that this whole “once every 823 years thing” is a myth.

Proof

Proof that the "once every 823 years" thing is a myth

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English Promotion and Relegation Predictions for 2012

I’ll be putting these in alphabetical order to avoid any “well who goes up through the play-offs?”:

Premier League:
Relegation:
Norwich
Wigan
Wolves

Championship:
Promotion:
Birmingham
Reading
West Ham

Relegation:
Brighton
Doncaster
Peterborough

League One:
Promotion:
Huddersfield
Preston
Sheffield United

Relegation:
Bury
Notts County
Walsall
Wycombe

League Two:
Promotion:
Accrington
Plymouth
Rotherham
Swindon

Relegation:
Burton Albion
Hereford

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My new predictions based on this week

Internazionale – Schalke 04
5-2 to Schalke……FIVE…TWO! The words “unbelievable” and “Jeff” come to mind.
So much for being the underdogs, but Schalke 04 are now my tip to go through.

Real Madrid – Tottenham
Nothing went right on Tuesday for the Londoners, Lennon injured (how the hell a sore throat suddenly just showed up I will never know), Crouch sent off after 15 for two yellow cards, which in itself is pretty amazing, and a 4-0 deficit to rescue.
I’d say Spurs’ form has finally run out I’m afraid.

Barcelona vs Shaktar Donetsk
I think 5-1 pretty much settles this one, in fact, if Shaktar manage to turn this one around, I will personally put £100 of my own money on them to win the competition.

Chelsea – Manchester United
Get in United! Although I will admit a 1-0 lead is quite precarious, Chelsea only need 2 goals to have us on the brink of defeat. But I still think we’ll manage it.

Semi-Finals
With 4 possibilities for each match I won’t go into too much detail, I’ll just highlight my prediction in bold for each possibility, with my preferred team in italics.
Internazionale/Schalke 04 – Chelsea/Manchester United
Internazionale – Manchester United
InternazionaleChelsea
Schalke 04 – Manchester United
Schalke 04Chelsea

Real Madrid/Tottenham – Barcelona/Shaktar Donetsk
Tottenham – Barcelona – If Tottenham have got past Real Madrid to get to this stage then they’ll definitely have a point to prove and I honestly couldn’t say who I think will win, but for the sake of being massive underdogs and simply because they’re English I’d have to support Tottenham in this
Real Madrid – Barcelona
Tottenham – Shaktar Donetsk
Real MadridShaktar Donetsk

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Predictions on the Champions League

Internazionale – Schalke 04
Internazionale had to really dig deep to get past Bayern and haven’t looked like defending champions at all, whereas Schalke 04 have done better than expected of them in getting past Valencia. I couldn’t really pick who I want to win as neither team looks like they’ll win the competition outright, but I think Inter will prove just too much for the underdogs in this fixture.

Real Madrid – Tottenham
Well well well, Tottenham continue to surprise Europe by edging their way past AC Milano, with Madrid struggling away from home to Olympique Lyonnais (I’ve probably spelt that wrong) before destroying them at the Bernabeú. As long as Tottenham don’t allow the same to happen to them and manage a draw – or even take a one-goal lead back to White Hart Lane – there’s no telling what might happen, especially with Rafael van der Vaart swearing revenge on Madrid…I don’t want to call this one either way, but I’ll definitely be 100% behind Spurs.

Barcelona vs Shaktar Donetsk
I think this one will be pretty straightforward, the only Eastern European team left in the competition have done well, but the might of Les Blaugranas will definitely prove too much, and what with having a bit of a soft spot for Barcelona, I’m a happy man at this one.

Chelsea – Manchester United
As far as club allegiances go…UNITED!! UNITED!! UNITED!! There is pretty much nothing I like about Chelsea and as such I’m behind Man U for this one, but the first leg is at Stamford Bridge which is a very hard place to go to and win, however if the Red Devils do take a lead back to Old Trafford, well, bye-bye Chelsea. Alternatively this could be one of those that ends up being decided on away goals, but I still think Man U will have the edge.

Semi-Finals
With 4 possibilities for each match I won’t go into too much detail, I’ll just highlight my prediction in bold for each possibility, with my preferred team in italics.
Internazionale/Schalke 04 – Chelsea/Manchester United
Internazionale – Manchester United
InternazionaleChelsea
Schalke 04 – Manchester United
Schalke 04Chelsea

Real Madrid/Tottenham – Barcelona/Shaktar Donetsk
Tottenham – Barcelona – If Tottenham have got past Real Madrid to get to this stage then they’ll definitely have a point to prove and I honestly couldn’t say who I think will win, but for the sake of being massive underdogs and simply because they’re English I’d have to support Tottenham in this
Real Madrid – Barcelona
Tottenham – Shaktar Donetsk
Real MadridShaktar Donetsk

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Why Sir Alex should not be forced to apologise

First of all we’re returned to the whole freedom of speech and opinion argument in that Fergie has actually had a toucline ban levied against him (against which he is appealing) and had an apology demanded of him for his comments about referee Martin Atkinson after Chelsea 2-1 Man U.

It seems as if no-one is allowed to say anything about referees in the modern game, say what you really think and you get lynched. And for these people on about how “Fergie gets away with murder”, no he doesn’t, he hasn’t done anything wrong in expressing his true opinion and it’s about time more people in football actually grew a pair and followed suit. Now it was probably unfair to make comments about Martin Atkinson in general, because in general he is a good referee, but the key decisions he made in that game were bad. David Luiz should have seen yellow (and consequently red) for his awful challenge on Rooney, but it was painfully obvious that Rooney’s elbow on James McCarthy (reported as a forearm) the previous week was still in the back of everyone’s mind, including the officials’*. And then Zhirkov was given a penalty after almost a carbon copy challenge from Chris Smalling (I say almost carbon copy as there was not a shred of malice) which was a foul, I’ll admit, so Luiz’s challenge was too, right?…right?? Oh…

And then to give Vidić a second yellow for shirt pulling when the Chelsea players have been playing dirty the whole game (because what else is new) was truly unbelievable, I’m not saying it wasn’t a foul, but I am saying it was inconsistent, and as a referee I can safely say that consistency is the single most important thing during a match.

So in conclusion, not only was Sir Alex well within his right to complain about Atkinson’s performance, he was in the right.

* Not to defend Rooney’s actions (they are indefensible) but the FA for once made the right decision in not suspending him, keeping with the Laws of the Game for a change.

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A small point

Many of my Facebook friends have been posting statuses and liking pages that are basically along the lines of “if Andy Gray can get fired for sexism, why can’t the Loose Women?”

Well? Why can’t they?

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“Sexism” in football

In this post I refer of course, to the recent sacking of Andy Gray from Sky Sports. It was for comments made about women and the offside rule and comments made in December 2010 towards Charlotte Jackson.

What happened most recently was that while thinking their microphones were off, Andy Gray and colleague Richard Keys, who have been the face of top-flight football on Sky since 1992 (i.e. my first birthday) agreed that Sian Massey – along with other female assisstant referees – didn’t know the offside rule [law]. Admittedly this wasn’t the smartest thing to do as A) I’ll bet many men don’t know the offside rule (I’ll put it at the bottom of this post as written in the 2010/2011 edition of Laws of the Game) and B) Funnily enough, she actually got the decision right, making them look something of mugs. Keys has since called Massey and apologised which is said to have been accepted, which is probably why he’s still in a job.

Andy Burton has also been suspended for saying that Sian Massey was “a bit of a looker” during a pitchside discussion with Andy Gray. That’s it. That’s what he’s been suspended for. I’m sure she felt really insulted by that(!)
The exact transcript of the conversation:
Burton: “Apparently, a female lino today, bit of a looker according to Steve the cameraman.”
Gray: “A female linesman?”
Burton: “He says she’s alright, now I don’t know if I should trust his judgement on that.”
Gray: “Nah, I wouldn’t, I definitely wouldn’t.”
The point being made here is that they don’t trust Steve’s judgement, these comments were not aimed at Massey at all, it’s probably a safe bet they’d not even seen her at this point. How someone can be legally suspended for that is beyond me.

Then a tape emerged of Andy Gray making a “sexist” comment to fellow presenter Charlotte Jackson, as taken from the Daily Mail (I know, I know): “As he put his microphone into his trousers he said: ‘Charlotte, can you tuck that down here for me?’ before he burst out laughing.”
This same report also states that “A source close to her [Massey] added that she was ‘sanguine about the matter and wants to put it all behind her’.” So yeah, she was clearly deeply offended. If you really want a laugh, read the conspiracy theory on that report as well.

In conclusion, while Andy Gray hasn’t exactly been angelic in this whole fiasco, it seems as if no-one is allowed to say anything anymore, I think anyone with common sense knows the difference between tongue-in-cheek comments and actual sexism, and BSkyB clearly don’t.

Now for the offside law:

Offside position
It is not an offence to be in an offside position.
A player is in an offside position if:

  • he is nearer to his opponents’ goal line than both the ball and the second-last opponent.

A player is not in an offside position if:

  • he is in his own half of the field of play or
  • he is level with the second-last opponent or
  • he is level with the last two opponents

Offence
A player in an offside position is only penalised if, at the moment the ball touches or is played by one of his team, he is, in the opinion of the referee, involved in active play by:

  • interfering with play or
  • interfering with an opponent or
  • gaining an advantage by being in that position

No offence
There is no offside if a player receives the ball directly from:

  • a goal kick
  • a throw-in
  • a corner kick

Infringements and sanctions
In the event of an offside offence, the referee awards an indirect free kick to the opposing team to be taken from the place where the infringement occured (see Law 13 – Postition of free kick).

And there you have the offside law, but now for the notes section relating to said law that takes up 8 pages (the law itself uses 1, but thankfully 6 of these 8 pages are diagrams):

Definitions
In the context of Law 11 – Offside, the following definitions apply:

  • “nearer to his opponents’ goal line” means that any part of a player’s head, body or feet is nearer to his opponents’ goal line than both the ball and the second-last opponent. The arms are not included in this definition
  • “interfering with play” means playing or touching the ball passed or touched by a team-mate
  • “interfering with an opponent” means preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or movements or making a gesture or movement which, in the opinion of the referee, deceives or distracts an opponent
  • “gaining an advantage by being in that position” means playing a ball that rebounds to him off a goalpost or the crossbar having been in an offside position or playing a ball that rebounds to him off an opponent having been in an offside position

Infringements
When an offside offence occurs, the referee awards an indirect free kick to be taken from the position of the offending player when the ball was last played to him by one of his team-mates.

Any defending player leaving the field of play for any reason without the referee’s permission shall be considered to be on his own goal line or touch line for the purposes of offside until the next stoppage in play. If the player leaves the field of play deliberately, he must be cautioned when the ball is next out of play.

It is not an offence in itself for a player who is in an offside position to step off the field of play to show the referee that he is not involved in active play. However if the referee considers that he has left the field of play for tactical reasons and has gained an unfair advantage by re-entering the field of play, the player must be cautioned for unsporting behaviour. The player needs to ask for the referee’s permission to re-enter the field of play.

If an attacking player remains stationary between the goalposts and inside the goal net as the ball enters the goal, a goal must be awarded. However, if the attacking player distracts an opponent, the goal must be disallowed, the player cautioned for unsporting behaviour and play restarted with a dropped ball from the position of the ball when play was stopped, unless play was stopped inside the goal area, in which case the referee drops the ball on the goal area line parallel to the goal line at the point nearest to where the ball was located when play was stopped.

Whoever said the offside law was hard? 😛

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